/ Resource / #5Things Equity Advocates Should Know About … The 2024 THEC Fact Book

#5Things Equity Advocates Should Know About … The 2024 THEC Fact Book

August 17, 2024 by EdTrust-Tennessee

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1. At community colleges, net price³ estimates decreased significantly for the wealthiest families while increasing for low-income students, going against national and regional trends.

³Per THEC: “Net price is calculated by adding the advertised price for tuition, fees, books, supplies, and the average living costs at the school, and subtracting the average grant and/or scholarship aid. Net price is calculated as the average for all full-time, first-time students who receive federal financial aid. For public colleges, the average cost for in-state students only.”

When considering the national concerns of the value of higher education as reported by the Pew Research Center, the affordability of higher education for Tennessee remains a priority for both students and education advocates. From 2017 to 2022 the net price of community college decreased by 21 percent for the wealthiest students (family income of $110,000+), while increasing by 1 percent  for students who are from families earning $0-$30,000 annually. This increase goes against both national and regional trends, which show a decrease in net price for the lowest income students and increases for the wealthiest families. Despite the changes in net price over 5 years, the average net price of attending a Tennessee community college remains slightly lower than both regional and national average net price for students at every income level. While the average net price of community college in Tennessee is below the national average, four-year institution average net price falls above both the national and regional average and reports 5-year increases in net price across all income levels.

Affordability impacts higher education access and success for students across the state. Reducing the unmet costs for students from low income backgrounds improves the likelihood of completing  a postsecondary credential or degree. Programs such as the Tennessee Completion Grants pilot have explored the impacts of reducing financial burdens faced by students and should be monitored by advocates to understand well they  reduce the financial barriers faced by students from low-income backgrounds.

2Federal Pell Grant-eligible students¹ account for more than half of all undergraduate students in Tennessee.

Percent of Pell-Eligible Undergraduate Students

¹Pell Base represents undergraduate, in-state students who were not reported to THECSIS as a dual enrollment student. Pell eligibility calculations in previous Fact Books have underestimated the true share of Pell eligible students. The data presented in this year’s report reflect an adjustment to display a more accurate estimation based on the students for whom Pell eligibility is known.”

Socioeconomic status has a significant impact on a student’s likelihood of enrolling in a postsecondary institution following high school graduation. Students from wealthier backgrounds tend to enroll in college at higher rates than their low-income peers, even when they have comparable academic performance in high school.  2023 Higher Education Fact Book shows that Pell-eligible students account for the majority of undergraduate students in Tennessee. THEC notes that in previous years that Pell eligibility among students may have been underreported and data reported in the 2023 and 2024 Fact Books reflect an adjustment to provide a more accurate estimate of the Pell-eligible student headcount. Despite a slight decrease in Pell-eligible students, they still account for more than half of all Tennessee students.

Community colleges historically enroll higher rates of Pell-eligible students, which is reflected in the THEC data reporting. It’s crucial as equity advocates to examine not just “who” is enrolling in higher education, but also “where”. While more than half of the students at community colleges and Locally Governed Institutions are Pell-eligible, 39.5 percent of students in the University of Tennessee system receive a Pell Grant at some point in their enrollment. The University of Tennessee – Knoxville, the state’s flagship and largest university , is the only public institution where less than 40 percent of undergraduates are Pell recipients.

3. Average first year retention rates² have increased to the highest levels since the Fall of 2014, bolstered by increased retention at community colleges.

First-year Students Retention Rates by Sector

²Per THEC: “Retention rates reflect the percentage of the first-time, full-time students who remain enrolled at any Tennessee public institution in the following fall term. Retention is not limited to the admitting institution. This data does not capture out-of-state enrollment.” THEC retention rates do not reflect students that remained enrolled in a post-secondary institution that is a private institution or out-of-state. Other sources, including NCES, define retention as “the percentage of students who return to the same institution.” while persistence is defined as “ the percentage of students who return to college at any institution” which more closely aligns with the definition of retention as used by THEC.

Increased retention rates in the Fall of 2022  indicate community colleges were recovering from the low retention rates that coincided with the pandemic. The trend has continued with community colleges reporting the highest retention rate since 2013, at 58.3 percent, a 4.5 percentage point  increase from the Fall of 2022. The average first year retention rate of all postsecondary institutions now sits at 72.1 percent, the highest reported average since the Fall of 2014. This increase mirrors a national pattern of increased first year retention and overall retention and persistence for college students. Additionally, four-year institutions in Tennessee had a retention rate slightly higher than the national average. Large gaps remain in the retention rate of students attending four-year institutions compared to community college students.

While first-year retention rates offer insights into the moment when students are most at risk of dropping or stopping out, they do not tell the whole story of student retention.  Disaggregating this data by race, income, and age is critical to understanding how various student groups are navigating their way through higher education. While THEC publicly reports 6-year graduation rates by race, gender, age and Pell status, it does not report disaggregated data for retention. Insights can be garnered from localized data sources, such as TBR’s student success dashboard, the UT System’s Student Success Dashboard, or Austin Peay State Universities data dashboard but centralized, disaggregated data would provide an accessible and shared understanding of student persistence and retention rates and  advocates should continue to uplift the need for thorough and accessible data.

4. As graduation rates have increased, gaps in completion rates persist among Black, Latino, and students from low-income backgrounds.

6-year Graduation Rates Fall 2017 Cohort

Across all sectors,  six-year graduation rates have increased since 2018, following the slight decrease in graduates following the pandemic. This is a promising indicator of recovery from the drops in enrollment and graduation rates after the onset of COVID-19. However, since 2020, 6-year graduation rates have increased only for White and Non-Pell eligible students at 4-year institutions while falling or remaining stagnant for all other student groups, as  noted in the visual above. White and non-Pell eligible students have the highest graduation rates across all institutions in Tennessee while only 2 out of every 10 Black students and 3 of every 10 Pell-eligible students at a Tennessee community college will graduate within 6 years of enrollment.

While reporting 6-year graduation rates is the national standard, it is not considered to be an on-time graduation rate for students. For Tennessee students at four year institutions, 42.8 percent of students will graduate within four years, which is considered the “normal time” to graduation, and which is 20.1 percentage points lower than the 6-year graduation rate.  Increasing the postsecondary attainment rate to 55 percent is a long standing goal in Tennessee, but the current attainment rate of 47.9 percent still lags behind the national average of 54.3 percent. Increasing on-time graduation rates should be prioritized for Tennessee students in order to reduce costs for both students and institutions.

5. Adult student⁴ enrollment rates have declined across all sectors of higher education and now make up the lowest proportion of students reported since the introduction of the Tennessee Reconnect Grant program in 2018.

Percent of Adult Student Enrollment

Per THEC: “ Adult is a student who is 25 years or older”

Following the introduction of the Tennessee Reconnect grant program in 2018, adults in Tennessee who had not yet earned a post-secondary credential could pursue a certificate or associate degree at qualifying institutions tuition-free.  After an initial spike in adult enrollment at community colleges following the introduction of the Reconnect program, adult student enrollment has consistently declined across all sectors of higher education. A 2022 report by the Tennessee Comptroller of the Treasury found that applicants for the Tennessee Reconnect declined by 46 percent from 2018-2020. Of the applications submitted, the majority of applicants do not become Reconnect students due to unfulfilled program requirements.

However, despite making up only 17.6 percent of the undergraduate student headcount in the Fall of 2022, adult students account for 30.9 percent of all undergraduate degrees awarded in the 2022-2023 academic year. Struggles with enrollment and retention plague adult students, but appropriate support can mitigate these barriers. Research from the Postsecondary Education Research Center at the University of Tennessee highlights the unique experiences of 20 Reconnect students to offer insights and recommendations for both state and institutional policies.

Equity Considerations

  1. Students with financial need account for the majority of Tennessee students, but less than half of these students graduate within 6 years of enrollment. Can the upcoming revision of the state’s outcomes-based funding formula incentivize institutions to address these gaps? What can educators and advocates do to support low-income students in successfully completing their programs? For more on expanding college access and success, see the Thrive College Access Learning Series from the Education Trust-Tennessee and the College Completion Guide from the MDRC.
  2. Who is benefiting most from Tennessee’s financial aid programs? College affordability is a concern for both students and advocates. What opportunities exist to ensure that financial aid is reaching the students with the greatest need?
  3. What additional supports are needed to increase the number of adult students enrolling in and completing postsecondary degree or certificate programs?

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